The Springboks chase another piece of silverware with the second phase of the Nations Championship this month, writes Jon Cardinelli.
The Springboks will start the Championship as the best-placed team in the 12-side tournament, having accumulated the most log points across the three rounds staged in July.
At this stage, Rassie Erasmus’ charges are on course to qualify for the grand final in London on 29 November, which will be contested by the top-ranked teams of the southern and northern conferences. France are the favourites to represent the European contingent, having finished at the head of the northern standings this past July.
It is interesting to note, however, that the French have accumulated just 12 log points after three rounds, whereas the leading teams in the southern conference, namely the Boks and the All Blacks, have banked a maximum of 15.
There has been a lot of criticism of the tournament structures over the past few months, and there may well be an outcry if one of the aforementioned teams wins all of its league matches yet fails to progress to the final.
While the Nations Championship is essentially a clash between the hemispheres, the integrity of the competition may well be compromised if the best-performing teams do not meet in the decider.
There is still a lot of rugby to be played, though, and it remains to be seen whether that scenario will come to pass.
In the meantime, Erasmus will keep one eye on his side as they battle Italy, France and Ireland in successive weeks, and another on the All Blacks, who will face Scotland, Wales and England.
At a glance, it would appear that the Boks have the tougher schedule, given that France and Ireland have been among the world’s leading sides for several seasons, while the teams from the United Kingdom have been far less consistent.
THE STORY SO FAR
At the start of the season, Erasmus explained that the Boks were building towards the four-Test Greatest Rivalry series against the All Blacks, and beyond that, the 2027 World Cup in Australia.
While the Nations Championship was never a priority, the Boks set out to win all three games against England, Scotland and Wales in South Africa, and to bolster their squad depth with future series and tournaments in mind.
Erasmus blooded five new players in Paul de Villiers, Jaco Williams, Vusi Moyo, Ruben van Heerden and Carlü Sadie, and used as many as 43 players across the three Tests.
The Boks averaged 43 points and seven tries a game. More importantly – at least in the context of the southern conference league race – they recorded a points difference of +81, and this allowed South Africa to finish ahead of the All Blacks.
Dave Rennie’s side faced tougher opponents in July, and were made to fight tooth and nail for a 34-32 win against France and a 40-21 victory over Ireland. After a slow start, the All Blacks hammered Italy 47-17.
Meanwhile in the northern conference, France bounced back from that loss to New Zealand in Christchurch to secure a 42-26 victory against Australia in Brisbane and a 42-15 win against Japan in Tokyo. Les Bleus were without several star players in July – due to injuries and resting protocols – butstill managed to finish at the top of the standings.
While Scotland recorded big wins against Argentina and Fiji, it was the four-try bonus point they earned in the loss to South Africa that allowed Gregor Townsend’s men to edge ahead of England in the northern conference standings.
England hit back after losing to the Boks in round one, thrashing Fiji 73-8 in Liverpool before pipping the Pumas 31-24 in a spiky contest staged in Santiago del Estero.
Ireland beat Australia 33-31 in Sydney before downing Japan 36-20 in Newcastle.
The loss to the All Blacks in Auckland, however, brought them back to earth with a thump.
While they only trail France by two log points in the northern conference at this stage, it would be a surprise to see Andy Farrell’s side qualifying for the grand final in November.
THE RACE FOR FINAL PLACE
The Boks will fancy their chances against Italy in Turin this November, having beaten the Azzurri three times in 2025. They shouldn’t take Gonzalo Quesada’s team lightly, though, given they will face Italy in the pool stages of next year’s World Cup.
Erasmus is likely to rotate his team over the course of the four-week series in Europe, and it is worth noting that there will be a six-day turnaround between the first game in Turin and the second in Paris.
The Boks may be desperate to bank a big win against Italy, but they will be looking to peak in later games against France and Ireland Can the Boks score four or more tries and win all three matches? Their point and try-scoring averages in the recent matches staged in South Africa bode well, as does the fact that they swept all three nations on the previous tour to Europe in 2025.
The performances of the All Blacks, of course, may influence the Bok tactics as the competition enters the final stages.
New Zealand should win all three of their matches against Scotland, Wales and England this November.
Erasmus will be hoping that one of those teams possibly England – can force an upset or that two or more can deny the Kiwis a try-scoring bonus point.
Bonus points may decide the race for top spot in the southern conference, and neither the Boks nor the All Blacks will want to leave themselves with too much to do on the final weekend of the league stage.
Erasmus has managed his squad well over the past few seasons, and may feel that he has the resources to win three matches and possibly a final in Europe this November.
Should they qualify, the Boks may meet France for the second time in the space of three weeks, and the team with the greatest strength in depth may win the all-important encounter at Twickenham.
Alternatively, one of Scotland, Ireland or England could advance to the decider. England have recorded some poor results in 2026, but will be tougher to beat in a rare final staged at their home ground.
That said, the Boks have beaten England on their last two visits to Twickenham, and have an excellent record against the side in knockout fixtures.
While the Nations Championship was never going to be a priority for the Boks at this stage of the World Cup cycle, they will have the opportunity to push for a place in the final, and for yet another title this November.
