The new European football season is still weeks away and much remains uncertain.

The transfer market has not settled yet, coaching changes continue and clubs will spend the time after the 2026 World Cup trying to reshape squads and assess players whose reputations have risen or fallen in North America.

That makes long-range predictions difficult. Yet while personnel changes are uncertain, we can look to history for some clues.

Across Europe’s five major leagues, title races are often remarkably similar and the same trends repeat themselves over time. So what should we expect this time round?

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

England continues to offer the most competitive title race among Europe’s leading leagues, but recent history suggests there is a clear benchmark for success.

Premier League champions have averaged 89 points over the last decade and eight of the last 10 winners have earned at least 86.

Arsenal ended a 22-year wait for the title in 2025/26, but repeating that achievement may prove more difficult.

Back-to-back champions are comparatively rare in England. Since the formation of the Premier League in 1992, only four clubs have defended the title – Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City.

City’s dominance has shaped the modern era. Before Arsenal’s recent success, they won six successive league crowns and eight of the previous nine.

Defending champions generally remain competitive. Since 2010, only three title holders have finished outside the top two the following season.

Manchester City are again likely to challenge despite the departure of Pep Guardiola after a decade in charge.

Liverpool are expected to improve after an underwhelming campaign, while Manchester United’s progress under Michael Carrick suggests they may enter the conversation.

Chelsea remain harder to assess. Their squad depth suggests potential, but instability has undermined them in recent seasons.

They are, for all intents and purposes, a basket case. Another trend concerns promoted clubs. Of the 15 promoted sides over the last five Premier League seasons, 11 were relegated immediately, highlighting the increasing gap between divisions.

Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City will all battle to stay up this season.

SPANISH LALIGA

Spain’s title race has been dominated by familiar names over the last two decades.

Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid are the only clubs to have won LaLiga since 2005, with Barca and Real accounting for 18 of the last 21 championships.

Barcelona begin 2026/27 as defending champions, though history suggests Real Madrid rarely stay down for long.

And with the returning José Mourinho at the helm, there is sure to be a shake-up.

Since 2000, Real have failed to reclaim the title within two seasons of losing it only twice.

Their decision to bring Mourinho back to the club reflects that urgency, though questions remain over whether he can rediscover the consistency that defined earlier periods of his career.

Is he ‘yesterday’s man’, rather than a coach for the present? The average LaLiga-winning points total over the last decade stands at 87, underlining the importance of consistency against lower-ranked opposition.

Barca have also tended to respond well to success, defending the title in five of the last eight opportunities when entering a season as champions.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

No league in Europe has been shaped by one club to the extent of Bayern Munich in Germany.

Bayern have won 18 of the last 22 Bundesliga titles and secured an 11-season streak between 2013 and 2023.

The average Bundesliga champion over the last decade collected around 80 points, though Bayern have frequently moved beyond that mark with ease.

Their advantage is reflected in attack as well. Bundesliga champions have averaged 84 goals a season in the last 10 years, while Bayern regularly surpass 90 and occasionally exceed 100.

Last year they scored a massive 122 in 34 games, just a staggering number.

Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig have mounted challenges at various stages, but sustaining pressure across a full season has proved difficult.

Harry Kane remains central to Bayern’s attack. Despite operating in deeper positions at times last season, he again produced elite scoring numbers.

The broader trend suggests Bayern remain the side others must catch rather than merely compete with.

ITALIAN SERIE A

Along with the Premier League, Italy offers greater competitive variation than many of Europe’s leading leagues.

Four clubs have shared the last 10 Serie A titles – Juventus (four), Inter Milan (three), Napoli (two) and AC Milan (one).

Inter enter the campaign as defending champions, but retaining the Scudetto has historically been difficult.

Juventus are the only side to defend a Serie A crown in the last decade.

Serie A champions have averaged around 85 points over the last 10 seasons, often with tighter margins than elsewhere in Europe.

Napoli face uncertainty after the departure of Antonio Conte, while Juventus and Milan are rebuilding after disappointing campaigns.

Roma and Como appear to be moving in the right direction but may still lack the depth required for a sustained title challenge.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

France presents perhaps the clearest picture of who will be champions because they have serial winners who can dwarf the rest of the league in spending power.

Paris Saint-Germain have won 11 of the last 13 Ligue 1 titles and have not finished outside the top two since 2011.

Only Monaco in 2016/17 and Lille in 2020/21 interrupted Paris Saint-Germain’s dominance during that period.

The average Ligue 1 champion over the last decade earned about 83 points, though Paris Saint-Germain frequently exceed that figure comfortably.

Financial disparity remains decisive. Paris Saint-Germain’s spending power continues to dwarf domestic rivals, leaving challengers reliant on inconsistency from Paris rather than expecting to outperform them over a season. Lens pushed them closely last year but still finished six points adrift.

THE WORLD CUP FACTOR

The season following a World Cup often brings disruption and can mean there are surprises in the title races, not so much the winner but who challenges.

Players return late, injuries increase and clubs reassess recruitment plans after standout performances on the global stage.

Unexpected contenders can emerge, while established sides occasionally struggle for rhythm That uncertainty will shape the opening months of the 2026/27 season.

But while transfers and managerial appointments may alter expectations, historical patterns continue to offer the best clues and the champions in each league will come from those who can hit the average number of points required and go a little beyond it.

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Jacquet joins the club after putting pen to paper on a five-year deal for a transfer fee of £55m with add-ons of up to £5m.

The 20-year-old arrives at the club after he came through the ranks at Rennes and he has gone on to feature in 33 appearances across all competitions for the senior team.

New Liverpool signing Jeremy Jacquet says he is thrilled to begin a new chapter at Anfield after completing his move to the Premier League giants.

“I feel really good, the first impressions are good and I am very happy to start here,” Jacquet told the Liverpool website.

“I am very happy. When I see the facilities, I can see myself there. I feel good here and I am very excited to get started.

“For me it’s a big dream, it’s a big club. A club like Liverpool, it’s a big dream for me.”

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RIO NGUMOHA
Club: Liverpool
Age: 17
Position: Left winger
Country of origin: England

Liverpool teenage sensation Rio Ngumoha is a highly promising talent and one of the top prospects in English football. Ngumoha’s rapid rise through the ranks at Liverpool has been nothing short of remarkable. He has already made significant strides in his professional career, having broken into the Reds’ senior team this season. The 17-year-old made history by becoming Liverpool’s youngest ever goalscorer, and his explosive pace, technical skill, composure in front of goal, and impact on the field, suggest he could potentially become a world-class talent.

IBRAHIM RABBAJ
Club: Chelsea
Age: 16
Position: Attacking midfielder
Country of origin: Morocco

Ibrahim Rabbaj has quickly risen through the ranks at Chelsea and is one of their most exciting prospects. The 16-year-old has already earned comparisons to Lionel Messi due to his exceptional dribbling, quick feet, creativity, and versatility as an attacking midfielder or winger, making him one of the top prospects to watch in the future. Although he has not yet made his senior debut for Chelsea, Rabbaj has the potential to make a difference in the Blues squad if he continues his development.

CLAUDIO ECHEVERRI
Club: Bayer Leverkusen (on loan from Manchester City)
Age: 19
Position: Attacking midfielder
Country of origin: Argentina

Claudio Echeverri is regarded as one of South America’s brightest young playmakers, which secured him a move to Manchester City, but he was loaned out to Bayer Leverkusen to further his development. Echeverri made a name for himself following his impressive performances for River Plate and the Argentina youth team during the 2023 FIFA U-17 World Cup, in which he won the Bronze Boot. Like Ibrahim Rabbaj, Echeverri has also drawn comparisons to Lionel Messi thanks to his close control and strong dribbling ability, vision, and playmaking skill, and his keen eye for goal, which earned him the nickname “El Diablito”.

FRANCESCO CAMARDA
Club: Lecce (on loan from AC Milan)
Age: 17
Position: Centre-forward
Country of origin: Italy

Francesco Camarda has been considered the new golden boy of Italian football and has been compared to legends such as Michael Owen and Filippo Inzaghi. The Italian has already written his name in football’s history books after he became the youngest debutant in Serie A history at 15 years and 260 days and the youngest Italian debutant in the UEFA Champions League. Camarda has already shown glimpses of what he is capable of. He has racked up a reputation for his deadly goal-scoring ability with both feet, his physical presence and aerial threat, and his exceptional ball control.

GEOVANY QUENDA
Club: Sporting CP
Age: 18
Position: Right winger
Country of origin: Portugal

After rising through the ranks at Sporting CP, Geovany Quenda has been labelled as one of Portugal’s best young players. Quenda already has elite dribbling ability, exceptional pace, high football IQ, and versatility to play on the wing and at wing-back, which earned him the crown as the Best Young Player of the 24/25 Portuguese League season The 18-year-old has the potential to become a world-class player, and he will continue his development at Chelsea next season after securing a £40 million move to the Blues.

RODRIGO MORA
Club: FC Porto
Age: 18
Position: Attacking midfield
Country of origin: Portugal

Rodrigo Mora is one of the brightest young talents to come through FC Porto’s academy ranks and is considered a big talent for the future of Portuguese football. The 18-year-old has already broken into the first team but is yet to cement a regular starting berth. Mora has been praised for his overall gameplay, vision, and maturity, and has been compared to Barcelona star Lamine Yamal for his goal-scoring and playmaking abilities. However, he has room to grow and improve in the hopes of becoming the next best player for his country.

SVERRE NYPAN
Club: Middlesbrough (on loan from Manchester City)
Age: 18
Position: Central midfield
Country of origin: Norway

Sverre Nypan is considered one of Norway’s top prospects and has been labelled as the ‘next Martin Odegaard’. The 18-year-old completed his move to Manchester City from Rosenborg BK for a deal worth £12.5m, but he was subsequently loaned out to Middlesbrough. The Norwegian already has an exceptional football IQ, likes to dribble with the ball, is known for his technical ability, and is versatile enough to play anywhere in the midfield, whether as an attacking midfielder, central midfielder, or false nine. Nypan has the potential to become one of the top midfielders in Europe, having already shown glimpses of elite-level football.

AYYOUB BOUADDI
Club: Lille
Age: 18
Position: Central midfield
Country of origin: France

Ayyoub Bouaddi is one of Europe’s top young talents and has been lighting up the stage in Ligue 1 with Lille. The 18-year-old has been described as the club’s most exciting talent to come through the ranks at Lille since Eden Hazard. Bouaddi made history by becoming the youngest player in Ligue 1 since 1981 and the youngest Lille player to debut in a European club competition. His incredible potential is limitless, and it will be hard for the French outfit to keep their hands on him.

JULIEN DURANVILLE
Club: Borussia Dortmund
Age: 19
Position: Left winger
Country of origin: Belgium

Julien Duranville is one of the most highly rated young players to come out of Belgian football in years. The 19-year-old is already considered a potential contender for future Ballon d’Or awards. Despite several injuries during his time at Borussia Dortmund, Duranville has already proven himself to be a top talent. He has made a number of appearances for Dortmund’s senior team and earned call-ups to the Belgian national team. While Duranville is still in the development stage of his career, he has shown his electric pace, good close control, and tricky dribbling ability with a strong work rate.

FRANCO MASTANTUONO
Club: Real Madrid
Age: 18
Position: Right winger
Country of origin: Argentina

Argentine prodigy Franco Mastantuono has established himself as one of the world’s brightest young talents. The 18-year-old secured a move to Real Madrid during the offseason and has already secured his place in the senior team with some impressive performances for Xabi Alonso’s side. Mastantuono has been described as Argentina’s future. He has already played for the senior national team, where he was given the iconic No.10 jersey, previously worn by Lionel Messi. The Argentine could potentially become one of the world’s best, with his masterful dribbling ability, vision, set-piece ability, and versatility in playing free in an attacking role.

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NEYMAR
Transfer: Barcelona to PSG, 2017
Fee: £200 million

Paris Saint-Germain shattered the transfer record in 2017 when they signed Neymar from Barcelona for £200 million. The Brazilian produced an outstanding return, making 173 appearances with 118 goals and 79 assists across seven years. Though he never delivered the coveted Champions League crown, he won 13 trophies, including five Ligue 1 titles, three Coupe de France titles, two Coupe de la Ligue titles, and three Trophée des Champions. He eventually departed for Al-Hilal in the Saudi Pro League. His career is currently on the wane, having returned to boyhood club Santos after a spell in Saudi Arabia.

KYLIAN MBAPPÉ
Transfer: AS Monaco to PSG, 2018
Fee: £165.7 million

PSG initially signed Kylian Mbappé on loan from Monaco to comply with Financial Fair Play regulations, before making the deal permanent in 2018 for £165.7 million. The French striker became a club legend, surpassing Edinson Cavani to become PSG’s all-time leading scorer with 256 goals in 308 appearances. He lifted 18 trophies, including six Ligue 1 titles, before leaving for Real Madrid. Ironically, his move to Real was as a free agent, meaning he cost them nothing, though they are paying plenty in wages to have him in Madrid.

PHILIPPE COUTINHO
Transfer: Liverpool to Barcelona, 2018
Fee: £142 million

Barcelona made Philippe Coutinho their most expensive signing when they paid Liverpool £142 million in 2018, intending for him to succeed Andrés Iniesta. Instead, his time at Camp Nou was largely disappointing. After one full season, he was loaned to Bayern Munich, later suffering a long-term injury. Across 106 appearances, he contributed 25 goals and 14 assists before joining Aston Villa in 2022. It was quite a spectacular fall from grace from his Anfield days.

ALEXANDER ISAK
Transfer: Newcastle United to Liverpool, 2025
Fee: £125 million

Alexander Isak became the most expensive player in British football history when Liverpool signed him from Newcastle United for £125m on deadline day in September 2025. His arrival also broke Florian Wirtz’s short-lived Premier League transfer record. At Newcastle, the Swede had been prolific, scoring 62 goals with 11 assists in 109 appearances, finishing second in the 2024–25 scoring charts behind Mohamed Salah and helping the Magpies win their first silverware in 56 years. The transfer was a protracted saga as Isak forced his way out of Newcastle, who did not want to sell for any price. But the alternative was to have an unhappy player on their hands who had essentially gone on strike.

FLORIAN WIRTZ
Transfer: Bayer Leverkusen to Liverpool, 2025
Fee: £116 million

Before Isak’s arrival, Florian Wirtz briefly held the British transfer record when Liverpool bought him from Bayer Leverkusen for £116 million. His record lasted exactly two months. A generational talent, Wirtz had been instrumental in Leverkusen’s historic unbeaten 2023–24 Bundesliga title campaign. In five-and-a-half years, he recorded 57 goals and 65 assists in 197 appearances before his Premier League move. It was a slow start to his time at Anfield, but players often need a period of time to bed in, such is the quicker pace of the Premier League.

MOISÉS CAICEDO
Transfer: Brighton to Chelsea, 2023
Fee: £115 million

Chelsea secured Moisés Caicedo for £115 million in August 2023, handing him an eight-year contract in what was then a British-record deal. The Ecuadorian midfielder endured a difficult debut season, struggling under the weight of expectation, but grew into his role. By 2024-25 he was among the Premier League’s standout performers and also helped Chelsea to the FIFA Club World Cup title.

JOÃO FÉLIX
Transfer: Benfica to Atlético Madrid, 2019
Fee: £113 million

Atlético Madrid broke their transfer record in 2019 by signing João Félix from Benfica for £113 million, the Portuguese club’s biggest-ever sale. Though his spell was disrupted by injuries and clashes with Diego Simeone, Félix still produced moments of brilliance and helped Atlético to the 2020–21 La Liga title. Loan spells at Chelsea, Barcelona and AC Milan followed before a permanent move to Al-Nassr. It is fair to say that overall, the fee did not match the output from the player.

ANTOINE GRIEZMANN
Transfer: Atlético Madrid to Barcelona, 2019
Fee: £107 million

Barcelona triggered Antoine Griezmann’s £107 million release clause in 2019, prising him away from Atlético Madrid. It was these funds that allowed Atleti to move for Felix as a replacement. However, the Frenchman never fully settled at Camp Nou and eventually returned to his old side in Madrid, first on loan and later permanently, for a fraction of the original fee.

ENZO FERNÁNDEZ
Transfer: Benfica to Chelsea, 2023
Fee: £106.8 million

Fresh from winning the 2022 World Cup, Enzo Fernández moved from Benfica to Chelsea in January 2023 for £106.8 million, signing an eight-and-a-half-year contract. Despite Chelsea’s struggles, Fernández impressed and is now in his fourth season with the club, serving as captain. He has become a crucial player for them in the midfield.

DECLAN RICE
Transfer: West Ham United to Arsenal, 2023
Fee: £105 million

Arsenal made Declan Rice their record signing in 2023, paying £105 million to West Ham United. The deal also set a record for a transfer between two British clubs. Rice quickly became a key figure at the Emirates, delivering consistency and leadership. Although Arsenal are still chasing major silverware, he has been among their most reliable performers since arriving.

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READ: Man City sign Donnarumma from PSG

The Italian shot-stopper completed his move from Paris Saint-Germain to Man City for a transfer fee of £26 million.

Donnarumma arrives at the club after putting pen to paper on a five-year deal with the option of a further year.

The Italian shot-stopper has become City’s seventh signing and he will wear the No. 99 jersey at his new club.

“To have signed for Manchester City is such a special and proud moment for me,” Donnarumma told his club’s official website.

“I am joining a squad packed with world-class talent and a team led by the one of the greatest managers in the history of football in Pep Guardiola. This is a club every player in world football would love to join.

“I have admired watching Manchester City for many years – so to now be able to play for the Club is a huge honour and a privilege.

“I cannot wait to meet my new teammates, the staff and the fans. Playing at the Etihad Stadium will be very, very special for me.

“I am very excited for what lies ahead and can promise that I will give absolutely everything to try and help the Club achieve even more success.”

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READ: “I’ll give everything to help the club succeed” – Donnarumma

The 26-year-old joined the English giants from Paris Saint-Germain for a transfer fee of £26 million.

Donnarumma arrives at the club after putting pen to paper on a five-year deal with the option of a further year.

The Italian shot-stopper has become City’s seventh signing and he will wear the No. 99 jersey at his new club.

“To have signed for Manchester City is such a special and proud moment for me,” said Donnarumma.

“I am joining a squad packed with world-class talent and a team led by the one of the greatest managers in the history of football in Pep Guardiola. This is a club every player in world football would love to join.

“I have admired watching Manchester City for many years – so to now be able to play for the Club is a huge honour and a privilege.

“I cannot wait to meet my new teammates, the staff and the fans. Playing at the Etihad Stadium will be very, very special for me.

“I am very excited for what lies ahead and can promise that I will give absolutely everything to try and help the Club achieve even more success.”

Image: Manchester City

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Pogba marked his return to football after joining Monaco as a free agent when he signed a two-year contract with the Ligue 1 side.

The 32-year-old returns to football after seven months without a club after agreeing to the mutual termination of his Juventus contract in November last year.

The Frenchman was initially banned from football for four years in February 2024 for a doping offence, but it was reduced to 18 months.

“AS Monaco are delighted to announce the arrival of Paul Pogba. The French World Champion has signed a 2-season deal, and is now tied to the Principality until 30 June 2027,” Monaco said in a statement.

WATCH: Paul Pogba sign his deal at Monaco

🥹 pic.twitter.com/TxC84ZsOTN

— AS Monaco 🇲🇨 (@AS_Monaco) June 28, 2025

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The Frenchman left Lyon to join Pep Guardiola’s side for a reported £34 million.

The 21-year-old has put pen to paper on a five-year deal, which keeps him at the Etihad Stadium until 2030.

Cherki came through the academy ranks at Lyon and amassed 29 goals and registered 45 assists in 185 appearances across all competitions at his boyhood club.

The attacking midfielder will now be available to Pep Guardiola when they participate in the FIFA Club World Cup in the USA.

“This is a dream for me,” Cherki said. “Honestly, to be joining a club like Manchester City and have the opportunity to make the next step in my career here is something very, very special.

“I have worked so hard for this all my life. I love this sport, and I can’t wait to develop further here in Manchester with Pep and his backroom staff.

“Everyone knows how good City are – they have been so successful for many years now. The responsibility to help the team continue winning is something I want to embrace.

“I would only leave Lyon for a project I really believe in and everything at City suggests I can develop my game and help the team be successful in the future.

“I can’t wait to show City fans what I can do.”

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From the country that gave us ‘total football’ comes a new and definite view of the role of goalkeepers.

The technical staff at the Dutch football association have been quite concerned in recent years that keepers are not emerging through the ranks, and the professional clubs in the Eredivisie are turning increasingly to goalkeeping talent from outside the country.

It has meant opening the debate on what the ideal profile for a goalkeeper is, and just how he or she should be trained.

Seventeen of the 18 topflight clubs had a foreign goalkeeper on the books, raising the question: “What is wrong with the locals?” Or more importantly, “What can be done to improve them?”

To try to solve the problem, the Dutch have studied many of the top keepers in the modern game and their role in helping their team win, not only by the saves they make, but also by their contribution to the overall game.

The likes of Marc-André ter Stegen at Barcelona, the Brazilian double act of Alisson Becker (Liverpool) and Ederson (Manchester City), and Jan Oblak, the Slovenian international at Atlético Madrid, were top of the study list … and with somewhat surprising conclusions emerging.

There was much emphasis over the past decade on the goalkeeper being able to play with his feet, join in as a sweeper and pass the ball with accuracy, breaking any pressure the opponent tried to put on him or the defence.

Joe Hart’s Manchester City career effectively ended when Pep Guardiola joined the club in mid-2016, with the Catalan prioritising a goalkeeper more comfortable with the ball at his feet.

Guardiola signed Claudio Bravo to initially replace Hart, before bringing in current No 1 Ederson one year later.

But the Dutch study reckons there is too much emphasis on the ball-playing goalkeeper at the expense of the basic skills required and it is time to focus again on the basics.

It is ironic that a country always actively searching for new boundaries in its approach to the game now says he ideal training is to focus back on the basics of goalkeeping – saving shots and keeping the goal intact. The Dutch study concludes that, firstly, goalkeepers should ideally be tall and athletic. An idea height is 1.93 m (or around 6 ft 3 in), which is unusually tall for goalkeepers in the South African league.

Then the training needs to be specific to the position. “Intense training in the basics of keeping is vital,” says Dutch national-team goalkeeper coach Patrick Lodewijks, who has worked at Premier League clubs and enjoyed a 20-year professional playing career.

“Those are diving, falling, swerving, positioning, jumping, catching and punching. The emphasis must be on stopping shots. The goalkeeper is the only player who can use his hands, an aspect that must never be underplayed in training and preparation.”

But what, then, of the role of the sweeper-keeper that modern coaches have become so enamoured with? The Dutch see a role for the keeper proficient with the ball but maintain that the emphasis needs to swing back towards the fundamentals. “First priority is saving, then worry about setting up attacks.”

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The 29-year-old, who is in his second stint with the club, has since put pen to paper on a one-year contract with the club.

Phiri has so far made 97 appearances across all competitions, scoring one goal and registering five assists for the club.

The South African will now prepare and help help his side secure promotion to the Ligue 1 ahead of the 2024-25 season.

The French outfit have since released the following statement on the matter, which reads:

“En Avant is pleased to announce the extension of Lebogang Phiri’s contract for an additional year.

“Arriving at the club in 2017, the 29-year-old central midfielder, originally from South Africa, played his first minutes in Ligue 1 with En Avant Guingamp during the 2017/18 season.

“After joining Çaykur Rizespor in 2021, he spent two seasons in Turkey before returning to France to play a season with Paris FC. Last season he returned to Guingamp.

“In total, he played 97 matches with En Avant, scoring 1 goal and providing 5 assists.”

✍️ 𝗘𝗻 𝗔𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁 est heureux de vous annoncer la prolongation de contrat 𝗟𝗲𝗯𝗼𝗴𝗮𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗶 d’une année supplémentaire.

Félicitations 𝗟𝗲𝗯𝗼’ !

➕ d’infos ⤵️https://t.co/3yIvEvhE63#TeamEAG #WarRaok pic.twitter.com/rdk2nNU30S

— En Avant Guingamp (@EAGuingamp) June 17, 2024

Photo by Guingamp website

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